New Delhi | Monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days before its scheduled arrival in India even as the country stares at the possibility of below normal rains for a second consecutive year.
The Indian Meteorological Department today said that conditions are becoming favourable for advancement of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas during the next 3-4 days. IMD has already predicted that India is likely to witness a below normal monsoon season for a second consecutive year. It has partly blamed the El Nino phenomenon for the low forecast.
The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days. Advance of southwest monsoon over Andaman Sea normally takes place around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. During the last few days, enhanced convection and increased rainfall activity has been observed over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
The cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next 3-4 days, IMD said in a statement. Unlike last year, when it was delayed by four days, monsoon will this year will hit Kerala on May 30, the event denoting the official onset of the wet season in the country.
The official date for monsoon to hit the southern state is June 1. If the monsoon reaches Kerala on May 30, it will be the seventh time in 10 years when the state witnesses the rains arriving earlier than the scheduled date.
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